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The outlook is uncertain as Trump prepares to shake up economic policymaking by cutting federal jobs, imposing big taxes on foreign goods and deporting millions of undocumented workers. His tariffs and immigration crackdown could push up prices, potentially rekindling the inflation that turned many U.S. voters against President Joe Biden and helped return Trump to the White House.

For now, most Americans still enjoy unusual job security. But for those looking for work, the job hunt has been getting harder compared with the red-hot hiring days of 2021 to 2023.

Average hourly wages rose by 0.5% from December and 4.1% from January 2024, a bit hotter than forecasters had expected. That may be disappointing for the . Still, some inflationary pressure from wage gains is being offset by U.S. productivity growth, which allows companies to pay more and earn fatter profits without raising prices.

69制片厂制作传媒淓mployers are really maintaining their workforce, but they are not hiring significantly, nor are they laying off,69制片厂制作传媒�69制片厂制作传媒� said Gregory Daco, chief economist at the consulting firm EY Parthenon. Daco expects average job growth to slow to between 100,000 and 150,000 a month this year (down slightly from the 2024 average of 166,000 new jobs a month).

The Labor Department also revised payrolls for November and December up by a combined 100,000.

Citing the strong upward revisions from late 2024, Carl Weinberg and Mary Chen of High Frequency Economics wrote that "There is no cause for concern about the strength of the economy in today69制片厂制作传媒檚 employment report.'' But they added that hiring in recent months suggests the Fed will be in no hurry to cut interest rates after doing so three times in 2024.

January hiring was narrow. Healthcare (44,000 new jobs), retail (34,000) and government (32,000) together accounted for 77% of new jobs last month. Mines shed 8,000 jobs.

The Labor Department said the Los Angeles wildfires and a cold snap in the Northeast and Midwest had 69制片厂制作传媒渘o discernable69制片厂制作传媒� impact on the January jobs numbers.

The future is cloudier.

A federal judge on Thursday to push out federal workers using financial incentives. A federal hiring freeze that is a 69制片厂制作传媒渘egative for employment growth,69制片厂制作传媒�69制片厂制作传媒� Bradley Saunders, an economist at Capital Economics, wrote last week.

Economists are also worried about Trump69制片厂制作传媒檚 against other countries. He69制片厂制作传媒檚 already on imports from China and is threatening tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the European Union and possibly, a universal levy on all imports.

Tariffs paid by U.S. importers, but typically passed along to customers, could heat up inflation 69制片厂制作传媒� which has fallen from the four-decade high it reached in mid-2022 but is seemingly stuck above the Fed69制片厂制作传媒檚 2% target. If tariffs push prices higher, the Fed may cancel or postpone the it had forecast for this year. That would be bad for economic growth and job creation.

Employers also worry about the economic fallout from Trump's promises to deport millions of immigrants working in the United States.

Coastal Luxury Outdoors, a Florida pool, maintenance and landscaping company, is struggling to find workers.

69制片厂制作传媒淲e69制片厂制作传媒檙e highly reliant on immigrant labor, to the point where even if we see reduced demand due to tariffs and other factors, we69制片厂制作传媒檒l still need to boost our staffing levels,69制片厂制作传媒�69制片厂制作传媒� said Rafi Friedman, company president.

Friedman said the company has a core administrative staff of about a dozen people and a field service staff that fluctuates by the season. More than 80% of the field workforce is Hispanic, most of them foreign born. Friedman said the company verifies their immigration status before hiring them.

69制片厂制作传媒�69制片厂制作传媒淏ecause our work is highly seasonal, we69制片厂制作传媒檙e always replacing at least some of our workforce from year to year, and in periods of high anti-immigrant sentiment, that turnover only gets more difficult to manage,69制片厂制作传媒� he said.

The job market has already lost momentum. American payrolls increased by 2 million last year, down from 2.6 million in 2023, 4.6 million in 2022 and a record 7.2 million in 2021 as the economy recovered from COVID-19 lockdowns. Employers are posting fewer jobs and from a record 12.2 million in March 2022, to 7.6 million in December 69制片厂制作传媒� still a decent number by historical standards.

Aujanique Star, 20, of Fife, Washington, is a pre-nursing student who has been trying to switch from her caregiving job to a position in retail for nearly a year. But after submitting as many as 20 applications, she just keeps facing rejections.

69制片厂制作传媒淚t makes me feel more frustrated that I have all this work experience and all this loyalty towards my jobs. ... What am I missing?69制片厂制作传媒� she said.

As the labor market cools, American workers are losing confidence in their ability to find better pay or working conditions by changing jobs. The number of people quitting has fallen from a record 4.5 million near the height of the hiring boom in April 2022, to December69制片厂制作传媒檚 3.2 million, which is below pre-pandemic levels.

In regular annual revisions, the Labor Department reported Friday that job creation from April 2023 through March 2024 wasn69制片厂制作传媒檛 as good as originally reported: 589,000 fewer jobs were created over those 12 months. Preliminary estimates, released in August, had suggested the downward revisions would be bigger 69制片厂制作传媒� 818,000 jobs.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Friday said the economy during Joe Biden69制片厂制作传媒檚 presidency 69制片厂制作传媒渨as far worse than anyone thought.69制片厂制作传媒�

Yet Trump is inheriting a healthy unemployment rate and stable economy, just not one that would necessarily make him happy.

Trump is banking on tax cuts and regulatory curbs to bolster the economy. But his freezes on federal funding could halt infrastructure projects and manufacturing. His tariffs could hurt the retail sector and his spending cuts could limit hiring in the health care and government sectors.

Associated Press writers Anne D'Innocenzio in New York, Josh Boak in Washington and Hallie Golden in Seattle contributed to this story.